The Real Exchange Rate, Innovation, and Productivity

Alfaro Laura; Cunat Alejandro; Fadinger HaraldLiu Yanping

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The Real Exchange Rate, Innovation, and Productivity

机译：实际汇率、创新和生产力

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We build a dynamic heterogeneous-firm model in which real depreciations raise export demand and the cost of importing intermediates, and also affect borrowing constraints and the profitability of engaging in research and development (RD). A number of stylized facts on manufacturing firms for a large set of countries discipline our estimation: Firms in emerging East Asia are very export oriented and rely little on imported intermediates, whereas the opposite holds for Latin America and Eastern Europe; firms from industrialized countries export as much as they import. Exporters experience an increase in cash flow, RD, and productivity growth in response to real exchange rate (RER) depreciations; importers experience the opposite outcomes. In counterfactual simulations of temporary RER movements, the effects on innovation and productivity growth are heterogeneous across regions, sizeable and persistent. In emerging Asia, real depreciations are associated with higher probabilities to engage in RD, faster growth of average firm-level productivity and cash flow, and higher export entry rates; we find negative average effects on these outcomes for firms in other emerging economies, and no significant average effects for firms in industrialized economies.

机译：我们建立一个动态heterogeneous-firm模型而真正的贬值提高出口需求和进口成本的中间体,也借贷约束和影响从事研究和盈利能力开发(R&D)。大量的国家的制造业公司我们估计纪律:公司在新兴东方亚洲出口导向和小依赖进口的中间体,而相反适用于拉丁美洲和东欧;从工业化国家出口一样他们进口。现金流、研发和生产力的增长应对实际汇率(r)贬值;结果。临时r运动的影响创新和生产力的增长异构跨地区,相当大的和持久的。与更高的概率从事研发、快速增长的平均水平公司级的生产力和现金流,甚至更高出口进入率;对这些结果的影响在其他公司新兴经济体,没有明显的平均水平影响公司在工业化的经济体。

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来源
《Journal of the European Economic Association》 |2023年第2期|637-689|共53页
作者
Alfaro Laura; Cunat Alejandro; Fadinger HaraldLiu Yanping;
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Harvard Sch Business;

Univ Vienna;

Univ MannheimCornerstone Res;

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正文语种英语
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The Real Exchange Rate, Innovation, and Productivity

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