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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of the European Economic Association >Term Structure, Forecast Revision, and the Signaling Channel of Monetary Policy
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Term Structure, Forecast Revision, and the Signaling Channel of Monetary Policy

机译：货币政策的期限结构、预测修正和信号通道

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摘要

Monetary policy shocks affect interest rates at long horizons (10 years or more). Furthermore, the private sectoras real GDP forecasts are revised upward in response to a monetary tightening. These facts challenge the prevailing theories in academic and policy circles. In this paper, I propose a micro-founded model to rationalize those facts, based on the signaling channel of monetary policy. I consider a framework where the central bank has private information about future economic conditions. Agents update their beliefs according to Bayes' theorem. Policy actions play a signaling role, and may therefore rationalize the above empirical findings.
机译：货币政策冲击影响利率长视野(10年以上)。私人sectoras实际GDP的预测向上修正来响应一个货币紧缩政策。在学术和政策圈理论。文章中,我提出一个micro-founded模型理顺这些事实,基于信号渠道的货币政策。中央银行私人框架信息对未来经济条件。代理根据贝叶斯更新他们的信仰定理。并可能因此合理化上述经验发现。

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