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首页> 外文期刊>One Earth >Increased wheat price spikes and larger economic inequality with 2℃ global warming
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Increased wheat price spikes and larger economic inequality with 2℃ global warming

机译：全球变暖2°C导致小麦价格飙升，经济不平等加剧

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摘要

Climate change poses complex impacts on the global wheat supply and demand chain. The impacts of climate change on average wheat yields are reasonably well studied, but its effects on yield variability and the associated economic consequences are poorly understood. Here, we show that future global wheat prices will exhibit steeper spikes at 2°C global warming (6.2% increase in the 95th percentile of global consumer price anomalies) despite a 1.7% increase in production given that C02 fertilization benefits crops. Such economic stresses could be abated by trade liberalization with lower prices. However, on the supply side, trade liberalization has contrasting effects: the profitability of farmers in advanced economies can be maintained or even raised, but this will inevitably cause economic losses and inequalities for farmers in less-developed, wheat-importing countries. Agricultural trade liberalization accompanied by protection policies in developing countries would be beneficial for global food security in the threat of climate change.
机译：对全球气候变化提出了复杂的影响小麦供需链。气候变化对小麦产量平均相当不错了,但其对产量的影响变化和相关的经济后果是知之甚少。未来的全球小麦价格将展览陡峭的峰值在2°C全球变暖(6.2%增加全球的第95个百分位消费者价格异常),尽管增加了1.7%在生产中,因为二氧化碳施肥好处作物。抑制了贸易自由化与更低的价格。然而,在供应方面,贸易自由化有截然不同的效果:的盈利能力发达国家的农民可以保留甚至提出,但这将不可避免地导致农民经济损失和不平等欠发达,wheat-importing国家。农业贸易自由化的陪同下保护政策在发展中国家全球粮食安全是有益的气候变化的威胁。

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  • 来源
    《One Earth》 |2022年第8期|907-916|共10页
  • 作者

    Tianyi Zhang; Karin van der Wiel; Taoyuan Wei;

  • 作者单位

    State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China;

    Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, the Netherlands;

    Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo, Norway;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 英语
  • 中图分类 环境科学、安全科学;
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