Dynamic Safety Management on the Key Equipment of Coal Gasification Based on Dbt-Dbn Method

Gao Han; Duo Yili; Sun TieYang Xuefeng

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Dynamic Safety Management on the Key Equipment of Coal Gasification Based on Dbt-Dbn Method

机译：基于DBT-DBN法的煤气化关键设备动态安全管理

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Gasifier system is one of the important components of coal gasification device. The technical characteristics of this system mainly lie in the following facts as huge technical scale and high complexity, and there is a dynamic correlation between the failure modes of gasification equipment. Traditional safety analysis methods such as fault tree and bow-tie diagram suffer from drawbacks as being static and ineffective in handling uncertainty, which hamper their application to risk analysis of process systems. This paper presents a newly developed model based on Dynamic Bow-Tie (DBT) and Dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) for quantitative dynamic risk assessment of gasifier system. In the meantime, in order to cope with the uncertainty of the failure data, fuzzy numbers and the defuzzification method are used to transform the experts' language into the failure rates. The results showed that dynamic risk assessment can solve the difficulties dealing with complex dynamic systems which have process variables and characteristics such as multiple, failure correlations, and noncoherence. And it also has important theoretical significance and application value for coal chemical industry to improve the scientificity of risk assessment.

机译：气化炉系统是煤气化装置的重要组成部分之一。该系统的技术特点主要在于技术规模大、复杂度高，气化设备失效模式之间存在动态相关性。传统的安全分析方法，如故障树和领结图，存在静态且处理不确定性无效等缺点，阻碍了其在过程系统风险分析中的应用。本文提出了一种基于动态领结（DBT）和动态贝叶斯网络（DBN）的气化炉系统定量动态风险评估模型。同时，为了应对故障数据的不确定性，采用模糊数和去模糊化方法将专家语言转化为故障率。结果表明，动态风险评估能够解决复杂动态系统在处理过程变量和多重、失效相关性、非一致性等特征时遇到的困难。对煤化工提高风险评估的科学性也具有重要的理论意义和应用价值。

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《Mathematical Problems in Engineering: Theory, Methods and Applications》 |2020年第36期|7469470.1-7469470.14|共14页
作者
Gao Han; Duo Yili; Sun TieYang Xuefeng;
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Liaoning Shihua Univ, Sch Mech Engn, Fushun 113001, Peoples R China;

Liaoning Shihua Univ, Sch Mech Engn, Fushun 113001, Peoples R China|China Univ Petr, Coll Pipeline & Civil Engn, Qingdao 266580, Peoples R China;

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Dynamic Safety Management on the Key Equipment of Coal Gasification Based on Dbt-Dbn Method

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