A hybrid mathematical model for estimation of runoff uncertainty influenced by climate drivers

Jingping Zuo; Jianhua Xu; Cuncun Qian

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A hybrid mathematical model for estimation of runoff uncertainty influenced by climate drivers

机译：A hybrid mathematical model for estimation of runoff uncertainty influenced by climate drivers

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摘要

Quantifying the runoff uncertainty influenced by the climate drivers is essential for water resources management. Runoff in the Tarim River Basin (TRB) originated from the ice and snow meltwater is, thus, sensitive to climate change due to its inherent uncertainties. In this paper, a hybrid mathematical model for uncertainty estimation combing the water-heat coupling model, sensitivity coefficient, uncertainty measurement indices, and an improving standard uncertainty method was proposed to quantify the runoff uncertainty influenced by climate drivers in the TRB from 1965 to 2015. The results showed that the runoff uncertainty in the TRB varies at different time scales and bears strong uncertainty in summer and autumn. In addition, runoff is sensitive to climate change, and when the annual precipitation, annual average temperature, and annual potential evapotranspiration factors change by 1%, the annual runoff changes by 2.8857%, 1.6559%, and - 1.8857%, respectively, while the contribution rate of temperature to runoff changes gradually increases. When the changes in precipitation and temperature have the fluctuation uncertainties of 5.76-6.96% and 22.26-66.72%, the runoff fluctuation uncertainties influenced by climate drivers in the Hotan River Basin, Yarkand River Basin, Aksu River Basin, and Kaikong River Basin are 14.31%, 15.03%, 18.23%, and 5.93%, respectively. The proposed hybrid mathematical model can provide a quantitative analysis reference for the runoff uncertainty under climate change in inland river basins in the arid region of Northwest China.

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《Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment》 |2023年第2期|595-610|共16页
作者
Jingping Zuo; Jianhua Xu; Cuncun Qian;
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作者单位

School of Economics and Management, Xi'an Technological University, Xi'an 710021, China, Research Center for East-West Cooperation in China, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China;

Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science (Ministry of Education), East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China, Research Center for East-West Cooperation in China, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China;

Key Laboratory of Thermo-Fluid Science and Engineering of Ministry of Education, School of Energy and Power Engineering, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710049, China;

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正文语种英语
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关键词
Uncertainty; Runoff; Evaluation; Climate drivers; Tarim River Basin;

A hybrid mathematical model for estimation of runoff uncertainty influenced by climate drivers

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