The applicability of real-time flood forecasting correction techniques coupled with the Muskingum method

Ruixiang Yang; Baodeng Hou; Weihua XiaoChuan LiangXuelei ZhangBaoqi LiHaiying Yu

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The applicability of real-time flood forecasting correction techniques coupled with the Muskingum method

机译：The applicability of real-time flood forecasting correction techniques coupled with the Muskingum method

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摘要

Improving flood forecasting performance is critical for flood management. Real-time flood forecasting correction techniques (e.g.,proportional correction (PC) and Kalman filter (KF)) coupled with the Muskingum method improve the forecasting performance but have limitations (e.g.,short lead times and inadequate performance,respectively). Here,particle filter (PF) and combination forecasting (CF) are coupled with the Muskingum method and then applied to 10 flood events along the Shaxi River,China. Two indexes (overall consistency and permissible range) are selected to compare the performances of PC,KF,PF and CF for 3 h lead time. The changes in overall consistency for different lead times (1–6 h) are used to evaluate the applicability of PC,KF,PF and CF. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) for 3 h lead time,the two indexes indicate that the PF performance is optimal,followed in order by KF and PC; CF performance is close to PF and better than KF. (2) The performance of PC decreases faster than that of KF and PF with increases in the lead time. PC and PF are applicable for short (1–2 h) and long lead times (3–6 h),respectively. CF is applicable for 1–6 h lead times; however,it has no advantage over PC and PF for short and long lead times,respectively,which may be due to insufficient training and increase in cumulative errors.

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来源
《hydrology research》 |2020年第1期|17-29|共13页
作者
Ruixiang Yang; Baodeng Hou; Weihua XiaoChuan LiangXuelei ZhangBaoqi LiHaiying Yu;
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作者单位

State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower ResearchState Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering,College of Water Resource and Hydropower,Sichuan University,ChinaPearl River Comprehensive Technology and Network Information Centre of Pearl River Water Resources Commission,Ministry of Water Resources;

State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research;

State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering,College of Water Resource and Hydropower,Sichuan UniversityState Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering,College of Water Resource and Hydropower,Sichuan University,ChinaEngineering College,Sichuan Normal University;

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收录信息美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
原文格式 PDF
正文语种英语
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关键词
correction techniques; Muskingum method; Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency; permissible range; real-time flood forecasting;

The applicability of real-time flood forecasting correction techniques coupled with the Muskingum method

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