A Mathematical Model to Predict Global Demographic Dynamics in the Age of Intelligent Machines

Akaev A. A.; Sadovnichii V. A.

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A Mathematical Model to Predict Global Demographic Dynamics in the Age of Intelligent Machines

机译：A Mathematical Model to Predict Global Demographic Dynamics in the Age of Intelligent Machines

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摘要

The global demographic transition and phenomenological models of demographic dynamics by S.P. Kapitsa and B.M. Dolgonosov are considered, which are based on the principles of the demographic and information imperatives. The technological imperative is analyzed, which is intermediate between the former two. An original mathematical model to predict demographic dynamics in the era of widespread use of intelligent machines is proposed. The model was built using the demographic model of Kapitsa and a formula to produce useful information in human society, based on the assumption by S. Kuznets about technological progress. The calculations made using this model show that the population of the Earth, having reached a maximum value of 8.37 billion people in 2050, will then begin to decline steadily and by 2100 will not exceed 7.9 billion people.

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《Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences》 |2022年第5期|636-642|共7页
作者
Akaev A. A.; Sadovnichii V. A.;
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作者单位

Moscow MV Lomonosov State Univ;

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原文格式 PDF
正文语种英语
中图分类自然科学总论;
关键词
explosive growth of humankind; demographic transition; demographic; technological; and information imperatives; phenomenological models of demographic dynamics; demographic forecast in the age of intelligent machines;

A Mathematical Model to Predict Global Demographic Dynamics in the Age of Intelligent Machines

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