Selection of CMIP5 general circulation model outputs of precipitation for peninsular Malaysia

Saleem A. Salman; Mohamed Salem Nashwan; Tarmizi IsmailShamsuddin Shahid

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Selection of CMIP5 general circulation model outputs of precipitation for peninsular Malaysia

机译：Selection of CMIP5 general circulation model outputs of precipitation for peninsular Malaysia

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Reduction of uncertainty in climate change projections is a major challenge in impact assessment and adaptation planning. General circulation models (GCMs) along with projection scenarios are the major sources of uncertainty in climate change projections. Therefore,the selection of appropriate GCMs for a region can significantly reduce uncertainty in climate projections. In this study,20 GCMs were statistically evaluated in replicating the spatial pattern of monsoon propagation towards Peninsular Malaysia at annual and seasonal time frames against the 20th Century Reanalysis dataset. The performance evaluation metrics of the GCMs for different time frames were compromised using a state-of-art multi-criteria decision-making approach,compromise programming,for the selection of GCMs. Finally,the selected GCMs were interpolated to 0.25° × 0.25° spatial resolution and bias-corrected using the Asian Precipitation – Highly-Resolved Observational Integration Towards Evaluation (APHRODITE) rainfall as reference data. The results revealed the better performance of BCC-CSM1-1 and HadGEM2-ES in replicating the historical rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia. The bias-corrected projections of selected GCMs revealed a large variation of the mean,standard deviation and 95% percentile of daily rainfall in the study area for two futures,2020–2059 and 2060–2099 compared to base climate.

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《hydrology research》 |2020年第4期|781-798|共18页
作者
Saleem A. Salman; Mohamed Salem Nashwan; Tarmizi IsmailShamsuddin Shahid;
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作者单位

School of Civil Engineering,Faculty of Engineering,Universiti Teknologi Malaysia;

School of Civil Engineering,Faculty of Engineering,Universiti Teknologi MalaysiaDepartment of Construction and Building Engineering,College of Engineering and Technology,Arab Academy for Science,Technology and Maritime Transport (AASTMT);

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收录信息美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
原文格式 PDF
正文语种英语
中图分类
关键词
climate change; compromise programming; general circulation model; model selection;

Selection of CMIP5 general circulation model outputs of precipitation for peninsular Malaysia

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