Incorporating distribution shifts and spatio-temporal variation when estimating weight-at-age for stock assessments: a case study involving the Bering Sea pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus)

Julia Indivero; Timothy E. Essington; James N. IanelliJames T. Thorson

首页> 外文期刊>ICES journal of marine science: International Council for the Exploration of the Sea journal of marine science >Incorporating distribution shifts and spatio-temporal variation when estimating weight-at-age for stock assessments: a case study involving the Bering Sea pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus)

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Incorporating distribution shifts and spatio-temporal variation when estimating weight-at-age for stock assessments: a case study involving the Bering Sea pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus)

机译：Incorporating distribution shifts and spatio-temporal variation when estimating weight-at-age for stock assessments: a case study involving the Bering Sea pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus)

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Environmental conditions can create spatial and temporal variability in growth and distribution processes, yet contemporary stock assessmentmethods often do not explicitly address the consequences of these patterns. For example, stock assessments often assume that body weightat-age (i.e. size) is constant across the stocks’ range, and may thereby miss important spatio-temporal patterns. This is becoming increasinglyrelevant given climate-driven distributional shifts, because samples for estimating size-at-age can be spatially unbalanced and lead to biaseswhenextrapolating into unsampled areas. Here, we jointly analysed data on the local abundance and size of walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus)in the Bering Sea, to demonstrate a tractable first step in expanding spatially unbalanced size-at-age samples, while incorporating fine-scalespatial and temporal variation for inclusion in stock assessments. The data come from NOAA’s bottom trawl survey data and were evaluatedusing a multivariate spatio-temporal statistical model. We found extensive variation in size-at-age at fine spatial scales, though specific patternsdiffered between age classes. In addition to persistent spatial patterns, we also documented year-to-year differences in the spatial patterningof size-at-age. Intra-annual variation in the population-level size-at-age (used to generate the size-at-age matrix in the stock assessment) waslargely driven by localized changes in fish size, while shifts in species distribution had a smaller effect. The spatio-temporal size-at-age matrixled to marginal improvement in the stock assessment fit to the survey biomass index. Results from our case study suggest that accountingfor spatially unbalanced sampling improved stock assessment consistency. Additionally, it improved our understanding on the dynamics of howlocal and population-level demographic processes interact. As climate change affects fish distribution and growth, integrating spatiotemporallyexplicit size-at-age processes with anticipated environmental conditions may improve stock-assessment forecasts used to set annual harvestlimits.

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《ICES journal of marine science: International Council for the Exploration of the Sea journal of marine science》 |2023年第2期|258-271|共14页
作者
Julia Indivero; Timothy E. Essington; James N. IanelliJames T. Thorson;
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作者单位

Habitat and Ecological Processes Research Program, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA, 7600Sand PointWay N.E., Seattle,WA 98115, USA;

School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University ofWashington, 1122 NE Boat Street, Box 355020, Seattle,WA 98195, USA;

Resource Ecology and Fisheries Management Division, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, NOAA, 7600 Sand PointWay N.E., Building 4Seattle,WA 98115, USA;

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正文语种英语
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spatio-temporal; stock assessment; weight-at-age;

Incorporating distribution shifts and spatio-temporal variation when estimating weight-at-age for stock assessments: a case study involving the Bering Sea pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus)

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