• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Climatic Change >Impact of climate change on the agriculture sector and household welfare in Mozambique: an analysis based on a dynamic computable general equilibrium model
【24h】

Impact of climate change on the agriculture sector and household welfare in Mozambique: an analysis based on a dynamic computable general equilibrium model

机译：Impact of climate change on the agriculture sector and household welfare in Mozambique: an analysis based on a dynamic computable general equilibrium model

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相关主题

摘要

Mozambique has historically been prone to natural disasters due to its geographical location, but over the past 20 years the intensity and frequency of droughts, floods and cyclones has increased, negatively affecting the entire economy, particularly agriculture. These impacts are expected to worsen, as climatic conditions become hotter and drier. This study estimates the impacts of climate change on the agriculture sector and household welfare in Mozambique using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model. Specifically, the study investigates the impact of climate change on agricultural production, looking at implications for various crops and regions in the country. It also reports climate change impacts on both urban and rural household welfare. A probabilistic approach considering a distribution of climate shocks under two global mitigation futures (i.e. unconstrained emissions and level 1 stabilization) is used to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the economy, providing a range for the potential impact of climate change and the uncertainties related to it. Climate impacts are considered through five key channels: agriculture, roads, hydropower, sea-level rise and cyclones. The analysis shows that acute negative impacts are experienced in the agricultural sector, particularly for maize and cassava as crop yields decrease. Successful global mitigation efforts of reducing CO2 concentration to 560 ppm by 2100 (L1S) decreases the degree of uncertainty of the impact of climate change on the Mozambican economy, as the GDP is expected to increase up to USD 6.0 billion.

著录项

获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号