• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Climatic Change >Non-analog increases to air, surface, and belowground temperature extreme events due to climate change
【24h】

Non-analog increases to air, surface, and belowground temperature extreme events due to climate change

机译：Non-analog increases to air, surface, and belowground temperature extreme events due to climate change

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相关主题

摘要

Air temperatures (Ta) are rising in a changing climate, increasing extreme temperature events. Examining how Ta increases are influencing extreme temperatures at the soil surface and belowground in the soil profile can refine our understanding of the ecological consequences of rising temperatures. In this paper, we validate surface and soil temperature (Ts: 0-100-cm depth) simulations in the SOILWAT2 model for 29 locations comprising 5 ecosystem types in the central and western USA. We determine the temperature characteristics of these locations from 1980 to 2015, and explore simulations of Ta and Ts change over 2030-2065 and 2065-2100 time periods using General Circulation Model (GCM) projections and the RCP 8.5 emissions scenario. We define temperature extremes using a nonstationary peak over threshold method, quantified from standard deviations above the mean (0-sigma: an event >similar to 51% of extreme events; 2-sigma:>similar to 98%). Our primary objective is to contrast the magnitude (degrees C) and frequency of occurrence of extreme temperature events between the twentieth and twenty-first century. We project that temperatures will increase substantially in the twenty-first century. Extreme Ta events will experience the largest increases by magnitude, and extreme Ts events will experience the largest increases by proportion. On average, 2-sigma extreme Ts events will increase by 3.4 degrees C in 2030-2065 and by 5.3 degrees C in 2065-2100. Increases in extreme Ts events will often exceed + 10 degrees C at 0-20 cm by 2065-2100, and at 0-100 cm will often exceed 5.0 standard deviations above 1980-2015 values. 2-sigma extreme Ts events will increase from 0.9 events per decade in 1980-2015 to 23 events in 2030-2065 and 38 events in 2065-2100. By 2065-2100, the majority of months will experience extreme events that co-occur at 0-100 cm, which did not occur in 1980-2015. These projections illustrate the non-analog temperature increases that ecosystems will experience in the twenty-first century as a result of climate change.

著录项

获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号