Between 2005 and 2019, a quarter of US fossil fuel production came from federal lands and waters. We estimate that the extraction, transportation and combustion of these fuels resulted in emissions equivalent to roughly 1.4 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year. To better understand their future role in the US emissions profile, we use publicly available data and machine learning to model coal, oil and natural gas production on federal lands and waters to 2030, and calculate associated life cycle climate emissions. We estimate that total emissions from fossil fuels produced on federal lands and waters decline 6% below 2019 levels by 2030; and note that absent additional policy, further reductions may be challenging as some of the cheapest fossil fuels occur on federally owned lands and many are effectively subsidized.
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