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Has North Africa turned too warm for a Mediterranean forest pest because of climate change?

机译：Has North Africa turned too warm for a Mediterranean forest pest because of climate change?

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摘要

Climate warming is inducing dramatic changes in species distribution. While many studies report the poleward range expansion of some species, some others report the range retraction and extinction risk of other species. Here we explore how climate warming affects the southern edge in North Africa of the pine processionary moth, Thaumetopoea pityocampa, which is a model insect currently expanding northwards and toward higher elevation in Europe. This Mediterranean forest insect was found in southern Tunisia until 2003. Field surveys were conducted to map the current southern edge of the species in Tunisia. Pheromone traps were installed on a north-south gradient, a translocation experiment of egg masses was conducted on this gradient, and local temperature change was analyzed. We thus proved that the pine processionary moth has disappeared from southern Tunisia, and that no more adult males were actually flying there. We also found a decrease of egg hatching and of the proportion of individuals able to reach larval stages along this gradient, while daily minimal and maximal temperatures globally increased. Furthermore, we showed that daily maximal and minimal temperatures as well as indices of extremely high temperatures have substantially increased during the study period (1980-2019). This study reveals the retraction of the pine processionary moth from southern Tunisia due to higher mortality rates that could be attributed to a significant local warming. The role of other factors (mainly the response of host trees and natural enemies to climate change) may amplify this direct effect and should be further explored.

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