• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Climatic Change >Comparison of multimodel ensembles of global and regional climate models projections for extreme precipitation over four major river basins in southern Africa- assessment of the historical simulations
【24h】

Comparison of multimodel ensembles of global and regional climate models projections for extreme precipitation over four major river basins in southern Africa- assessment of the historical simulations

机译：Comparison of multimodel ensembles of global and regional climate models projections for extreme precipitation over four major river basins in southern Africa- assessment of the historical simulations

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相关主题

摘要

This study assesses the performance of large ensembles of global (CMIP5, CMIP6) and regional (CORDEX, CORE) climate models in simulating extreme precipitation over four major river basins (Limpopo, Okavango, Orange, and Zambezi) in southern Africa during the period 1983-2005. The ability of the model ensembles to simulate seasonal extreme precipitation indices is assessed using three high-resolution satellite-based datasets. The results show that all ensembles overestimate the annual cycle of mean precipitation over all basins, although the intermodel spread is large, with CORDEX being the closest to the observed values. Generally, all ensembles overestimate the mean and interannual variability of rainy days (RR1), maximum consecutive wet days (CWD), and heavy and very heavy precipitation days (R10mm and R20mm, respectively) over all basins during all three seasons. Simple daily rainfall intensity (SDII) and the number of consecutive dry days (CDD) are generally underestimated. The lowest Taylor skill scores (TSS) and spatial correlation coefficients (SCC) are depicted for CDD over Limpopo compared with the other indices and basins, respectively. Additionally, the ensembles exhibit the highest normalized standard deviations (NSD) for CWD compared to other indices. The intermodel spread and performance of the RCM ensembles are lower and better, respectively, than those of GCM ensembles (except for the interannual variability of CDD). In particular, CORDEX performs better than CORE in simulating extreme precipitation over all basins. Although the ensemble biases are often within the range of observations, the statistically significant wet biases shown by all ensembles underline the need for bias correction when using these ensembles in impact assessments.

著录项

获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号