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Does context matter? Robust building retrofit decision-making for decarbonization across Europe

机译：Does context matter? Robust building retrofit decision-making for decarbonization across Europe

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Retrofitting the European building stock is a key element of European decarbonization strategies. Effective retrofit strategies are thus necessary. Multiple studies use robustness assessment methods to investigate the environmental performance of building retrofits under the uncertainty of future changes for single buildings or multiple buildings in the same context. In view of harmonized European policies on low-energy buildings, it becomes necessary to investigate how robust retrofit strategies perform in different European contexts. This study assesses retrofit strategies with a scenario-based robustness assessment for six different European contexts. The contexts vary in climate, electricity grid GHG emission intensity, and typical building typologies. The robustness is assessed for climate change, electricity grid decarbonization, and basic occupant set point variation. The results show that the robustness of a retrofit strategy is context-sensitive. While the climate zone has little impact, the building typologies mainly define the robustness of envelope measures. The electricity grid GHG emission intensity has the highest impact, mainly influencing the robustness of heating system choices and the installation of PV and battery systems. For most investigated contexts, i.e., where electricity grid GHG emission intensity is > 300-400 gCO2-eq/kWh, decarbonizing the electricity grid is crucial to enable the decarbonization of buildings and should have a high priority. In contexts with lower electricity grid GHG emission intensities, embodied emissions of the materials become the dominating factor for retrofit decisions. We recommend that impact analyses of retrofit decisions should always be accompanied by robustness analyses, particularly when analysis periods of 50-60 years are considered.

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