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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of the American Water Resources Association >Predicting Near-Term Effects of Climate Change on Nitrogen Transport to Chesapeake Bay
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Predicting Near-Term Effects of Climate Change on Nitrogen Transport to Chesapeake Bay

机译：Predicting Near-Term Effects of Climate Change on Nitrogen Transport to Chesapeake Bay

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摘要

Understanding effects of climate change on nitrogen fate and transport in the environment is criticalto nutrient management. We used climate projections within a previously calibrated spatially referencedregression (SPARROW) model to predict effects of expected climate change over 1995 through 2025 on totalnitrogen fluxes to Chesapeake Bay and in watershed streams. Assuming nitrogen inputs and other watershedconditions remain at 2012 levels, effects of increasing temperature, runoff, streamflow, and stream velocityexpected between 1995 and 2025 will include an estimated net 6.5% decline in annual nitrogen delivery to thebay from its watershed. This predicted decline is attributable to declines in the delivery of nitrogen from uplandnonpoint sources to streams due to predicted warmer temperatures. Such temperature-driven declines in thedelivery of nitrogen to streams more than offset predicted increased delivery to and within streams due toincreased runoff and streamflow and may be attributable to increasing rates of denitrification or ammoniavolatilization or to changes in plant phenology. Predicted climate-driven declines in nitrogen flux are generallysimilar across the watershed but vary slightly among major nonpoint source sectors and tributary watersheds.Nitrogen contributions to the bay from point sources are not affected by temperature-driven changes in deliveryfrom uplands and are therefore predicted to increase slightly between 1995 and 2025.

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