Site fidelity after successful nesting and site shift after nest predation (win-stay, lose-shift) is a well-documented adaptation to spatially heterogeneous and temporally auto-correlated predation risk. However, site shift even after a successful nesting (win-shift) may become a better tactic than site fidelity (win-stay), if a successful nest site becomes more risky until the next nesting opportunity, and if new low-risk nest sites regularly appear. Correspondingly, selecting a new non-used nest site may become a better tactic than selecting one previously used successfully by a conspecific. I studied this dynamic by focusing on nest cavities that may be available for many years, and using nest boxes to allow an experimental design. At localities where Boreal Owls (Aegolius funereus) had nested successfully, a dyad of nest boxes was made available each year, one box in the original nest tree and one in a new tree for the season, each containing either old nest material from the successful nesting or new wood shavings. Boreal owls were more likely to select the box in the new tree when more years had elapsed since the successful nesting and since a box was installed in the original nest tree, independent of box content. The pattern of selection differed between young and old individuals for males, but not females. Young males based their selection of nest tree mainly on box content, while old males based it on time elapsed since the successful nesting in the original nest tree and how long a box had been present there. The probability of depredation of Boreal Owl nests by Pine Marten (Martes martes) has previously been found to increase with cavity age and number of nesting seasons elapsed since the previous successful nesting. This pattern of nest predation thus predicted the pattern of nest site selection found.
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