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A World without Satellite Data as a Result of a Global Cyber-Attack

机译：A World without Satellite Data as a Result of a Global Cyber-Attack

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The probability that all satellites in space fail simultaneously is by experts qualified as highly improbable but not excluded. In literature, we find two major potential risks that can cause this, a mega solar storm (so-called Carrington Effect) or a space debris chain reaction (called the Kessler effect). However, a survey with experts described in detail in this article points out an equally harmful and even more presently plausible scenario, namely cyber-attacks.Irrespective of the probability, it deserves an attempt to imagine the economic major damage that such total satellite collapse would represent for society. It will clearly illustrate our dependency on satellite data and areas that may be less obvious at first sight. Therefore, the consequences of such a scenario, even if there is a low probability, are explored under this assumption.Cyber-attacks on satellites have already taken place on several occasions, from which a few past and recent ones are reported in this article. In particular, satellite operators and military organizations are not frequently reporting such attacks publicly given the loss of confidence by the clients or the general public respectively. There seems to be no solution to the existing problem of pinpointing the source of an invisible and non-observable yet successful attack. We can say without hesitation that, with the investments in cyberwarfare and improved techniques, such threats will become more frequent, and unfortunately, more effective soon.This article will discuss potential technical countermeasures such as Rapid Response programs, as well as policy-oriented measures. In the latter, the effectiveness of agreements in this field is questionable. Therefore, emphasis will be put on Transparency and Confidence Building Measures (TCBM).(c) 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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