A study from the University of California (US), Irvine and sponsored by the California Energy Commission projects that scale production of zero-carbon hydrogen fuel in the US state could cost $2-3/kg by 2030. Assuming that California provides sufficient policy support, demand for renewable hydrogen could be over 400MM kg/y by 2030 and 4B kg/y by 2050. By 2025, the study projects that fuel station prices for hydrogen could be at $6-8.50/kg by 2025, including state tax credits and transportation costs, based on hydrogen prices falling 75-88% from current levels. On the other hand, S&P Global Platts Analytics considers the projection very ambitious. At the same time, US hydrogen production technology firm SGH2 already announced a waste-gasification production process that can produce zero-carbon hydrogen at $4/kg. The company plans to demonstrate the technology at its 40K-mt/y plant in Lancaster, CA which is set to come online in 2023.
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