Multiscale assessments of hydroclimatic modelling uncertainties under a changing climate

Ganiyu Titilope Oyerinde; Agnide E. Lawin; Tobore Anthony

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Multiscale assessments of hydroclimatic modelling uncertainties under a changing climate

机译：Multiscale assessments of hydroclimatic modelling uncertainties under a changing climate

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Since the 1970s, climate change has led to decreasing water resources in the Sahel. To cope with climate change, reliable modelling of future hydroclimatic evolutions is required. This study uses multiclimate and hydrological modelling approaches to access past and future (1951–2100) hydroclimatic trends on nine headwater catchments of the Niger River Basin. Eight global climate models (GCMs) dynamically downscaled under the CORDEX CMIP5 project were used. The GCM data were bias-corrected with quantile–quantile mapping. Three rainfall–runoff models (IHACRES-CMD, IHACRES-CWI and Sacramento) were calibrated and validated with observed data and used to simulate runoff. The projected future runoff trend from 2061 to 2090 was compared across the three hydrological models to assess uncertainties from hydrological models. Results show that the bias correction positively enhanced the quality of eight GCMs across the nine catchments. An average Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency ( NSE ) across the nine catchments was improved from 0.53 to 0.68 and the Kling–Gupta Efficiency ( KGE ) was enhanced from 0.65 to 0.83. The three hydrological models were calibrated and validated appropriately on the nine catchments. Despite this, high hydrological modelling uncertainties were witnessed with contrasting projected future runoff patterns by the three models. We recommended the use of ensembles of both climate and hydrological models to provide reliable hydroclimatic modelling.

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《Journal of water and climate change》 |2022年第4期|1534-1547|共14页
作者
Ganiyu Titilope Oyerinde; Agnide E. Lawin; Tobore Anthony;
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作者单位

Graduate Research Program (GRP) Climate Change and Water Resources, West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL), University of Abomey-Calavi;

Graduate Research Program (GRP) Climate Change and Water Resources, West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL), University of Abomey-Calavi||Laboratory of Applied Hydrology, Faculty of Sciences and Technology, Univ;

Department of Soil Science and Land Management, College of Plant Science and Crop 6 Production, Federal University of Agriculture Abeokuta;

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正文语种英语
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climate change; ensembles; hydrology; runoff; uncertainty;

Multiscale assessments of hydroclimatic modelling uncertainties under a changing climate

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