A new malaria vector in Africa: Predicting the expansion range of Anopheles stephensi and identifying the urban populations at risk

Sinka M. E.; Pironon S.; Massey N. C.Longbottom J.Hemingway J.Moyes C. L.Willis K. J.

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A new malaria vector in Africa: Predicting the expansion range of Anopheles stephensi and identifying the urban populations at risk

机译：A new malaria vector in Africa: Predicting the expansion range of Anopheles stephensi and identifying the urban populations at risk

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In 2012, an unusual outbreak of urban malaria was reported from Djibouti City in the Horn of Africa and increasingly severe out-breaks have been reported annually ever since. Subsequent investigations discovered the presence of an Asian mosquito species; Anopheles stephensi, a species known to thrive in urban environments. Since that first report, An. stephensi has been identified in Ethiopia and Sudan, and this worrying development has prompted the World Health Organization (WHO) to publish a vector alert calling for active mosquito surveillance in the region. Using an up-to-date database of published locational records for An. stephensi across its full range (Asia, Arabian Peninsula, Horn of Africa) and a set of spatial models that identify the environmental conditions that characterize a species' preferred habitat, we provide evidence-based maps predicting the possible locations across Africa where An. stephensi could establish if allowed to spread unchecked. Unsurprisingly, due to this species' close association with man-made habitats, our maps predict a high probability of presence within many urban cities across Africa where our estimates suggest that over 126 million people reside. Our results strongly support the WHO's call for surveillance and targeted vector control and provide a basis for the prioritization of surveillance.

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《Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.》 |2020年第40期|24900-24908|共9页
作者
Sinka M. E.; Pironon S.; Massey N. C.Longbottom J.Hemingway J.Moyes C. L.Willis K. J.;
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作者单位

Dept Zool,Univ Oxford;

Biodivers Informat & Spatial Anal Dept,Royal Bot Gardens Kew;

Li Ka Shing Ctr Hlth Informat & Discovery,Univ OxfordDept Vector Biol,Univ Liverpool Liverpool Sch Trop Med;

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收录信息美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
原文格式 PDF
正文语种英语
中图分类自然科学总论;
关键词
vector; urban malaria; ensemble modeling; species distribution model; invasive species; GAMBIAE; TRANSMISSION; BIOMOD; BRAZIL;

A new malaria vector in Africa: Predicting the expansion range of Anopheles stephensi and identifying the urban populations at risk

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