Preliminary estimates from EIA's Global Surplus Crude Oil Production Capacity shows, as of May 2022, surplus capacity in non-OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) countries decreased by 80% compared with 2021. The data show that, in 2021, 1.4 MMbpd of surplus production capacity was available in non-OPEC countries, about 60% of which was in Russia. As of May 2022, all surplus production capacity in Russia is estimated because of the sanctions implemented. EIA determined that excess oil production capacity declined in other non-OPEC producing countries as well. It is estimated that, as of May 2022, producers in non-OPEC countries had about 280,000 bpd of surplus production capacity. Surplus capacity is the maximum existing capacity that can be brought online within 30 days and sustained for at least 90 days. The assessment of crude oil production capacity does not include volumes of oil that are offline because of unplanned outages and disruptions, including sanctions, because these volumes cannot be brought to market voluntarily. For that reason, EIA excludes crude oil production that is offline from surplus capacity estimates in Iran, Libya, Venezuela and now Russia.
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