Individual learning as a driver of changes in community vulnerability under repeated hurricanes and changing climate

Chengwei Zhai; Allison C. Reilly; Seth D. Guikema

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Individual learning as a driver of changes in community vulnerability under repeated hurricanes and changing climate

机译：Individual learning as a driver of changes in community vulnerability under repeated hurricanes and changing climate

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The risks from singular natural hazards such as a hurricane have been extensively investigated in the literature. However, little is understood about how individual and collective responses to repeated hazards change communities and impact their preparation for future events. Individual mitigation actions may drive how a community’s resilience evolves under repeated hazards. In this paper, we investigate the effect that learning by homeowners can have on household mitigation decisions and on how this influences a region’s vulnerability to natural hazards over time, using hurricanes along the east coast of the United States as our case study. To do this, we build an agentbased model (ABM) to simulate homeowners’ adaptation to repeated hurricanes and how this affects the vulnerability of the regional housing stock. Through a case study, we explore how different initial beliefs about the hurricane hazard and how the memory of recent hurricanes could change a community’s vulnerability both under current and potential future hurricane scenarios under climate change. In some future hurricane environments, different initial beliefs can result in large differences in the region’s long-term vulnerability to hurricanes. We find that when some homeowners mitigate soon after a hurricane—when their memory of the event is the strongest—it can help to substantially decrease the vulnerability of a community.

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《Risk analysis》 |2023年第4期|762-782|共21页
作者
Chengwei Zhai; Allison C. Reilly; Seth D. Guikema;
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Department of Industrial and Operations Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA,One Concern, Inc, Menlo Park, California, USA;

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA;

Department of Industrial and Operations Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA;

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正文语种英语
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agent-based model; hurricane mitigation; learning; repeated hazards;

Individual learning as a driver of changes in community vulnerability under repeated hurricanes and changing climate

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