Mechanisms Controlling Climate Warming Impact on the Occurrence of Hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay

Richard Tian; Carl F. Cerco; Gopal BhattLewis C. LinkerGary W. Shenk

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Mechanisms Controlling Climate Warming Impact on the Occurrence of Hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay

机译：Mechanisms Controlling Climate Warming Impact on the Occurrence of Hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay

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Climate change represents an increasing stressor on estuarine and coastal ecosystems. A series of simulations were run using the Integrated Compartment Water Quality Model to determine the magnitude of various mechanisms controlling the effect of climate warming on dissolved oxygen (DO) in the Chesapeake Bay. The results suggested that the average hypoxic volume in the summer would increase by 9 (410 Mm~3) from 1995 to 2025 as air temperature increases by 1.06℃ and water temperature by 0.9℃. The change in DO solubility contributes 55 of the total climate warming effect, biological rates 33, and stratification 11. The Rappahannock Shoal, a hydraulic control point, plays a major role in determining the effect of climate warming on DO in the Bay. Due to the abrupt change in bathymetry, the convergence between seaward-moving freshwater and landward-moving saltwater causes downwelling and enhanced vertical mixing which introduces surface water of higher temperature to the deep channel and accelerates organic matter remineralization and oxygen consumption in deep waters. Surface water DO concentrations will decrease under climate warming conditions due to lower DO solubility, reducing DO flux to the deep channel and contributing to hypoxia development. These findings provide critical information for future management decision making regarding the effects of climate warming on DO in Chesapeake Bay and other estuaries.

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《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》 |2022年第6期|855-875|共21页
作者
Richard Tian; Carl F. Cerco; Gopal BhattLewis C. LinkerGary W. Shenk;
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University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Chesapeake Bay Program Office Annapolis, Maryland;

Attain Inc., Chesapeake Bay Program Office Annapolis, Maryland;

Pennsylvania State University, Chesapeake Bay Program Office Annapolis, MarylandUSEPA, Chesapeake Bay Program Office Annapolis, MarylandUSGS, Chesapeake Bay Program Office Annapolis, Maryland, USA;

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正文语种英语
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Chesapeake Bay; climate warming; modeling; water quality; hydraulic control;

Mechanisms Controlling Climate Warming Impact on the Occurrence of Hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay

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