A probabilistic epidemiological model for infectious diseases: The case of COVID-19 at global-level

Heitor Oliveira Duarte; Paulo Gabriel Siqueira; Alexandre Calumbi Antunes OliveiraMarcio das Chagas Moura

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A probabilistic epidemiological model for infectious diseases: The case of COVID-19 at global-level

机译：A probabilistic epidemiological model for infectious diseases: The case of COVID-19 at global-level

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This study has developed a probabilistic epidemiological model a few weeks after theWorld Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic (based on the little dataavailable at that time). The aim was to assess relative risks for future scenarios andevaluate the effectiveness of different management actions for 1 year ahead. We quantified,categorized, and ranked the risks for scenarios such as business as usual, andmoderate and strong mitigation. We estimated that, in the absence of interventions,COVID-19 would have a 100 risk of explosion (i.e., more than 25 infections inthe world population) and 34 (2.6 billion) of the world population would have beeninfected until the end of simulation. We analyzed the suitability of model scenarios bycomparing actual values against estimated values for the first 6 weeks of the simulationperiod. The results proved to be more suitable with a business-as-usual scenario inAsia and moderate mitigation in the other continents. If everything went on like this, wewould have 55 risk of explosion and 22 (1.7 billion) of the world population wouldhave been infected. Strong mitigation actions in all continents could reduce these numbersto, 7 and 3 (223 million), respectively. Although the results were based on thedata available in March 2020, both the model and probabilistic approach proved to bepracticable and could be a basis for risk assessment in future pandemic episodes withunknown virus, especially in the early stages, when data and literature are scarce.

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来源
《Risk analysis》 |2023年第1期|183-201|共19页
作者
Heitor Oliveira Duarte; Paulo Gabriel Siqueira; Alexandre Calumbi Antunes OliveiraMarcio das Chagas Moura;
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作者单位

Departamento de Engenharia Mecanica,Coordena??o de Engenharia Naval, UniversidadeFederal de Pernambuco, Recife, Pernambuco,Brazil;

Programa de Pos-Gradua??o em Engenharia deProdu??o, Centro de Estudos e Ensaios em Risco eModelagem Ambiental (CEERMA), UniversidadeFederal de Pernambuco, Recife, Pernambuco,Brazil;

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正文语种英语
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COVID-19; probabilistic epidemiological model; world population;

A probabilistic epidemiological model for infectious diseases: The case of COVID-19 at global-level

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