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Projections of energy yield- and complementarity-driven wind energy expansion scenarios in the European Union

机译：Projections of energy yield- and complementarity-driven wind energy expansion scenarios in the European Union

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The intensified expansion of intermittent onshore wind energy in the European Union raises questions about electricity supply to cover future electricity demand. Complementary wind resource use is considered an option to keep the number of supply-demand mismatches low. Here, the hypothesis is tested that adopting an EU-wide coordinated, complementarity-driven wind energy expansion leads to less residual loads than energy yield-driven wind energy expansion. This study quantifies the European Union-wide complementarity considering site-specific adding of new wind turbines and compared complementarity- to energy-yield-driven wind turbine siting. The goal is to evaluate wind energy expansion and assess the relevance of wind turbine siting coordination levels. Six high-resolution (500 m × 500 m) wind turbine siting scenarios for 2019-2100 were developed. Other variable renewables such as solar and offshore wind energy and the load curves were held constant to focus solely on the influence of the wind turbine siting scenario. The efficient and complementary wind resource use is quantified based on four objective criteria. They are the renewable share of annual electricity consumption, the share of hourly electricity supply droughts, the hourly renewable share of the load, and its coefficient of variation. Depending on the wind turbine siting scenario, the renewable share of annual electricity consumption ranges from 69.1 to 78.5 in 2050 the EU. The results indicate that the range of renewable load share values is more than 50 less under European Union-wide complementarity-driven wind turbine siting than under energy-yield-driven wind turbine siting. However, 100 renewable electricity supply is achieved 13 years later than under energy-yield-driven siting under complementarity-driven siting. Thus, a flexible European Union-wide siting strategy that considers future demand development and expansion of other variable renewables is proposed.

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