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首页> 外文期刊>Bird Study >Modelling population dynamics and trends in migratory birds from non-standardized multi-species ringing data: the potential of multi-model selection
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Modelling population dynamics and trends in migratory birds from non-standardized multi-species ringing data: the potential of multi-model selection

机译：基于非标准化多物种振铃数据的候鸟种群动态和趋势建模：多模型选择的潜力

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ABSTRACT Capsule Long-term and non-standardized migratory bird ringing data can be used in models controlling variation in bird ringing methodology for reliable population trend estimations.Aims Bird ringing data usually cover long periods and might reflect long-term population changes. However, they are mainly derived during non-standardized multi-species catching at numerous sites during the autumn migration period. We searched for the best modelling approach to determine reliable species population dynamics and trend estimation models based on annual multi-species bird ringing data.Methods We used ringing data from the Slovenian Bird Ringing Scheme and selected data in three steps according to temporal, quantitative, and qualitative data selection. Annual indices were constructed based on two types of denominators, ringing days, and ringing totals, vs. a robust model without a denominator. We ran 20 candidate-generalized additive models describing migrating population dynamics for 15 bird species by combining different data selection approaches and denominators.Results We found that the models were species-specific, although the universal model could also be applied to most species. We propose a general model construction approach for population trend assessments from non-standardized bird ringing data. The estimates obtained by this approach were comparable to the overall European population trends derived from breeding survey data.Conclusions Bird ringing data from the autumn migration period are a valuable resource for assessing continental scale population trends taking into account the whole population (non-breeders and juveniles included) and even some rare and endangered species, but should be conducted according to standard protocols to ensure reliable statistical inference of population trends.
机译：摘要 胶囊 长期和非标准化的候鸟环数据可用于控制鸟环方法变异的模型，以实现可靠的种群趋势估计。鸟类鸣叫数据通常涵盖较长的周期，并可能反映长期的种群变化。然而，它们主要来源于秋季洄游期间在许多地点的非标准化多物种捕猎期间。我们寻找最佳建模方法，以确定可靠的物种种群动态和基于年度多物种鸟类环数据的趋势估计模型。方法 采用斯洛文尼亚鸟类振铃方案的振铃数据，根据时间、定量和定性数据选择，分三步选取数据。年度指数是基于两种类型的分母构建的，即振铃天数和振铃总数，而不是没有分母的稳健模型。我们运行了 20 个候选广义加性模型，通过结合不同的数据选择方法和分母来描述 15 种鸟类的迁徙种群动态。结果 我们发现这些模型是物种特异性的，尽管通用模型也可以应用于大多数物种。我们提出了一种基于非标准化鸟类环数据的种群趋势评估的通用模型构建方法。通过这种方法获得的估计值与从育种调查数据得出的欧洲总体种群趋势相当。结论 秋季迁徙期的鸟鸣数据是评估大陆尺度种群趋势的宝贵资源，同时考虑了整个种群（包括非繁殖种群和幼鸟）甚至一些珍稀濒危物种，但应按照标准协议进行，以确保种群趋势的可靠统计推断。

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  • 来源
    《Bird Study》 |2021年第3期|330-344|共15页
  • 作者

    Petras Tina; Vrezec Al;

  • 作者单位

    Institute of the Republic of Slovenia for Nature Conservation;

    National Institute of Biology;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 英语
  • 中图分类 动物学;
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