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Risk evolution analysis of ship pilotage operation by an integrated model of FRAM and DBN

机译：Risk evolution analysis of ship pilotage operation by an integrated model of FRAM and DBN

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摘要

The risks involved in ship pilotage operations are characterized by random, uncertain and complex features. To reveal the spatiotemporal evolution of ship collision risks in the pilotage operations process, a risk evolution analysis model is developed in this paper by the combination of a Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM) and Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN). First, based on the analysis results of the functional resonance mecha-nism of a ship pilotage system, the relevant collision risk influencing factors (RIFs) and their coupling re-lationships are identified. Second, the DBN is quantified by the employment of various uncertainty treatment methods including the Dempster-Shafer evidence theory for the configuration of the prior probabilities and a Markov model for the dynamic factors' transition probability calculation. Finally, using the temporal observation data, the temporal risk inference is conducted to reveal the risk evolution law in a ship pilotage operations process. The findings show that the evolution of collision risk in ship pilotage is significantly sensitive to regional locations, resulting in a "U" curve shaped by the action of functional resonance. "Inadequate human look-out" is among the most influential factors, and hence targeted risk control strategies should be formulated to ensure the safety of ship pilotage operations.

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