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N-shaped relationship between economic growth and automotive emissions: Evidence from Russia

机译：N-shaped relationship between economic growth and automotive emissions: Evidence from Russia

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The paper contributes to the literature on the Environmental Kuznets Curve providing an empirical analysis of the relationship between air pollutant emissions from motor vehicles and social and economic factors in 56 major Russian cities using a panel data set for 2013-2018. The fixed effect regression models were used to analyze the impact of gross municipal product per capita on various types of automobile emissions. We found the evidence of an N-shaped Environmental Kuznets Curve relationship: emissions rise with economic growth due to the rapid automobilization, thereafter growth slows down, giving way to a decline. The reason may be that the households and commercial organizations in wealthier cities can buy newer cars, which correspondingly meet modern ecological standards and require cleaner fuel. Then, beyond a certain point of the gross municipal product per capita, the growth of automobile emissions resumes. We argue that the further decline is due to the structural economic dynamics and technological shifts, and the second ascending part is because the scale effect outperforms all the others. Other substantial results are as follows: (ⅰ) population densification leads to increased automobile pollution in large cities, whereas in relatively small municipalities, the effect is opposite; (ⅲ) roads density is a significant factor of emission reduction in large cities; (ⅳ) increase in the cost of gasoline leads to less vehicular emission. Our results emphasize that Russian cities need massive investments in transport infrastructure to form a new settlement framework outside the established centers. This will not only significantly affect the problem of atmospheric air pollution, but also improve the overall quality of life. Finally, it is necessary to increase the transparency of state environmental statistics, including by expanding the network of monitoring of atmospheric pollution in cities.

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