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Computing marginal likelihoods via the Fourier integral theorem and pointwise estimation of posterior densities

机译:Computing marginal likelihoods via the Fourier integral theorem and pointwise estimation of posterior densities

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Abstract In this paper, we present a novel approach to the estimation of a density function at a specific chosen point. With this approach, we can estimate a normalizing constant, or equivalently compute a marginal likelihood, by focusing on estimating a posterior density function at a point. Relying on the Fourier integral theorem, the proposed method is capable of producing quick and accurate estimates of the marginal likelihood, regardless of how samples are obtained from the posterior; that is, it uses the posterior output generated by a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler to estimate the marginal likelihood directly, with no modification to the form of the estimator on the basis of the type of sampler used. Thus, even for models with complicated specifications, such as those involving challenging hierarchical structures, or for Markov chains obtained from a black-box MCMC algorithm, the method provides a straightforward means of quickly and accurately estimating the marginal likelihood. In addition to developing theory to support the favorable behavior of the estimator, we also present a number of illustrative examples.

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