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首页> 外文期刊>Bird Study >Assessing drivers of winter abundance change in Eurasian Curlews Numenius arquata in England and Wales
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Assessing drivers of winter abundance change in Eurasian Curlews Numenius arquata in England and Wales

机译：评估英格兰和威尔士欧亚卷鹬冬季丰度变化的驱动因素

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ABSTRACT Capsule We assessed annual changes in Eurasian Curlew Numenius arquata wintering numbers at estuaries in England and Wales over 40 years against local and broadscale factors. Long-term trends likely reflect the cessation of hunting, but potentially also distributional changes associated with milder winters and changes in breeding success.Aims To investigate whether local or broadscale factors might affect site-level annual abundance changes in Curlews in England and Wales.Methods Relationships between Wetland Bird Survey (WeBS) counts from 46 estuaries from 1974/75 to 2016/17 and environmental data were assessed using Generalized Linear Mixed Models.Results The winter abundance trend of Curlews in England and Wales closely matched the decline of breeding populations since the mid-1990s. However, there are clear differences in the trends prior to this. Our analysis suggests that winter counts were influenced by the cessation of hunting and by weather, with abundance decreasing during cold winters and increasing the following winter. The influence of severe weather was less pronounced in the immediate aftermath of the hunting ban. An increase in numbers in the east of the UK also occurred during this period. No effects were detected for other environmental variables, but this may reflect the fact that only static variation between sites was tested for these variables rather than change.Conclusion The increase in wintering Curlew numbers in the UK during the 1980s and early 1990s likely reflects a positive response to the cessation of hunting, but also a wider redistribution associated with milder winters across the European wintering range. Winter temperatures influenced annual abundance changes at individual sites, although impacts on detectability are difficult to disentangle from impacts on survival using WeBS counts alone. Factors operating during the breeding season are likely to be the main drivers of the current population decline.
机译：摘要 胶囊 我们评估了 40 年来英格兰和威尔士河口欧亚鹬 Numenius arquata 越冬数量的年度变化，并结合当地和大尺度因素。长期趋势可能反映了狩猎的停止，但也可能与温和的冬季和繁殖成功率的变化相关的分布变化。方法 1974/75—2016/17年46个河口湿地鸟类调查（WeBS）计数与环境数据的关系，结果 英格兰和威尔士卷鹬冬季丰度趋势与1990年代中期以来繁殖种群的下降趋势密切相关。然而，在此之前的趋势存在明显差异。我们的分析表明，冬季数量受到狩猎停止和天气的影响，在寒冷的冬季，丰度下降，而在第二年冬季增加。在狩猎禁令之后，恶劣天气的影响不那么明显。在此期间，英国东部的人数也有所增加。没有检测到对其他环境变量的影响，但这可能反映了这样一个事实，即仅针对这些变量测试了站点之间的静态变化，而不是变化。结论 1980 年代和 1990 年代初英国越冬鹬数量的增加可能反映了对停止狩猎的积极反应，但也反映了与欧洲越冬范围内较温和的冬季相关的更广泛的重新分布。冬季温度影响了各个地点的年度丰度变化，尽管仅使用WeBS计数很难将对可探测性的影响与对生存的影响区分开来。繁殖季节的因素可能是当前种群数量下降的主要驱动因素。

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