Four-dimensional (4D) trajectory is considered to be one of the effective means to reduce the environmental impact of aviation while increasing capacity and safety. This paper proposes an approach to optimize cruise speed profile subject to wind uncertainty, aiming to reduce the fuel burn complying with the Required Time of Arrival (RTA) constraints. The approach is based on a probabilistic framework, and the uncertainty propagation is analyzed using a Probability Transformation Method, and the probability distributions of arrival time and fuel consumption are determined. In addition, from an airborne operation perspective, transition profiles need to be considered in the reference speed optimization problem, aiming to improve the rationale of the reference trajectory. Numerical simulations are presented, and the results demonstrate that the speed profiles optimized by this method are able to meet the RTA constraints in the presence of wind uncertainty, with an average reduction of 7.04 in fuel consumption compared with that of the flight data.
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