AbstractThe need for a probabilistic description of earthquake magnitudes and their epicentres, specifically their joint probability density function, arises in the quantitative assessment of seismic risk. For line sources, this description has generally been assumed to be of a specific form dictated primarily by the unavailability of relevant statistical data. The need for such simplification can, however, be eliminated if the available statistical data are supplemented by the knowledge of the accumulated displacements on the fault, thereby leading to an improved estimate of the required probability density function. A procedure to obtain such an improved estimate and simultaneously the mean occurrence rate of earthquakes originating from the fault is developed in this paper. The use of these refined inputs in the seismic risk evaluation is described. Numerical examples are presented for illustration.
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