AbstractIn engineering seismic hazard probabilistic analysis, physical constraints are generally overlooked. We formulate such constraints for the general case of a site within an annular seismogenic zone. This configuration provides a first approximation of seismic hazard analysis within a broad zone undergoing crustal deformation; such zones are a common expression of continental tectonics. Applications are restricted to medium size earthquakes (Ms<7). The formulation is applied to two cases reflecting the mid‐plate (case I) and plate boundary (case II) seismotectonic environments. It is found that, for a given strain rate and for an upper bound magnitude of 6 3/4, the extreme hazard in both the environments is the same but of different character. In the plate boundary example, it is associated with widespread ground deformation while in the mid‐plate example, it involves more intense ground motion. On the other hand, if the upper bound magnitude is 5 3/4, the extreme hazard is likely to be an order of magnitude less in case I than in case II. Moreover, when the extreme hazard is associated with singular conditions generated by a single fault, the assumption of a Poissonian process may not be safe for earthquake resistant design decisi
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