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首页> 外文期刊>Natural hazards and earth system sciences >Assessment of island beach erosion due to sea level rise: the case of the Aegean archipelago (Eastern Mediterranean)
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Assessment of island beach erosion due to sea level rise: the case of the Aegean archipelago (Eastern Mediterranean)

机译：海平面上升导致的岛屿海滩侵蚀评估：以爱琴海群岛（东地中海）为例

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摘要

The present contribution constitutes the first comprehensive attempt to (a) record the spatial characteristics of the beaches of the Aegean archipelago (Greece), a critical resource for both the local and national economy, and (b) provide a rapid assessment of the impacts of the long-term and episodic sea level rise (SLR) under different scenarios. Spatial information and other attributes (e.g., presence of coastal protection works and backshore development) of the beaches of the 58 largest islands of the archipelago were obtained on the basis of remote-sensed images available on the web. Ranges of SLR-induced beach retreats under different morphological, sedimentological and hydrodynamic forcing, and SLR scenarios were estimated using suitable ensembles of cross-shore (1-D) morphodynamic models. These ranges, combined with empirically derived estimations of wave runup induced flooding, were then compared with the recorded maximum beach widths to provide ranges of retreat/erosion and flooding at the archipelago scale. The spatial information shows that the Aegean "pocket" beaches may be particularly vulnerable to mean sea level rise (MSLR) and episodic SLRs due to (i) their narrow widths (about 59 of the beaches have maximum widths < 20 m), (ii) their limited terrestrial sediment supply, (iii) the substantial coastal development and (iv) the limited existing coastal protection. Modeling results indeed project severe impacts under mean and episodic SLRs, which by 2100 could be devastating. For example, under MSLR of 0.5m - representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change (IPCC) - a storm-induced sea level rise of 0.6m is projected to result in a complete erosion of between 31 and 88 of all beaches (29-87 of beaches are currently fronting coastal infrastructure and assets), at least temporarily. Our results suggest a very considerable risk which will require significant effort, financial resources and policies/regulation in order to protect/maintain the critical economic resource of the Aegean archipelago.
机译：本文稿是首次全面尝试（a） 记录爱琴海群岛（希腊）海滩的空间特征，这是当地和国家经济的重要资源，（b） 对不同情景下长期和偶发性海平面上升的影响进行快速评估。群岛58个最大岛屿的海滩的空间信息和其他属性（例如，海岸保护工程的存在和后岸开发）是根据网络上的遥感图像获得的。利用合适的跨岸（1-D）形态动力学模型集合，估计了不同形态学、沉积学和水动力强迫下SLR引起的海滩退缩范围，以及SLR情景。然后将这些范围与经验得出的波浪上升诱发洪水的估计值进行比较，然后与记录的最大海滩宽度进行比较，以提供群岛尺度的退缩/侵蚀和洪水范围。空间资料显示，爱琴海的“袖珍”泳滩可能特别容易受到平均海平面上升（MSLR）和偶发性单反相机的影响，因为（i）其宽度较窄（约59%的泳滩最大宽度<20米），（ii）其陆地沉积物供应有限，（iii）沿海发展较多，以及（iv）现有的海岸保护有限。建模结果确实预测了平均和偶发SLR的严重影响，到2100年可能是毁灭性的。例如，在政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）第五次评估报告（AR5）的MSLR为0.5m（代表性浓度路径（RCP）4.5下，风暴引起的海平面上升0.6m预计将导致31%至88%的海滩完全侵蚀（29-87%的海滩目前正面临沿海基础设施和资产）， 至少是暂时的。我们的研究结果表明，为了保护/维护爱琴海群岛的关键经济资源，需要付出巨大的努力、财政资源和政策/法规，从而面临非常大的风险。

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