AbstractIn this study the seismic risks of northern Iraq have been evaluated by a probabilistic method. The data contain about 500 earthquakes which occurred between 1840 and 1978. The epicentral locations and magnitudes of the included earthquakes have been presented.A linear relationship between magnitude and frequency has been assumed. The attenuation of intensities has been presented as a function of magnitude and epicentral distance.The seismic risk has been calculated for 225 points of the analysed area. The equiseismal maps related to a certain risk level have been plotted by using these point values of intensities, and assuming a linear variation between the points. The significance of the standard deviation of the attenuation law and the strict lower bound intensity has been investigated by sensitivity analyses.The intensity contours related to the annual return period of 50, 100 and 200 years have been presented, and also the intensity contours with an occurrence probability of 10 per cent during 50, 100 and 200 years have been drawn.
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