Predicting the future of the globalhuman community often seems to bea fool's errand. The track record offuturism is notoriously deficient; mid-20th century prognostications of life inthe early 21st century are now usedmainly for generating laughter. Thefailure of prophecy has many roots.Forecasters often merely extrapolateexisting trends, unreasonably assumingthat the underlying conditions willremain stable. Wrenching discontinuitiesare often difficult even to imagine,yet history has been molded by theirinevitable if unpredictable occurrences.Many futurists also allow their ideologicalcommitments, if not their underlyingpersonalities, to shape their conclusions.Thus pessimists and environmentalistscommonly see doom aroundthe corner, whereas technophiles andoptimists often envisage a coming paradise.As years go by and neither circumstancecomes to pass, the time offulfillment is merely put off to anotherday.
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