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A KALMAN FILTER APPROACH TO THE FORECASTING OF MONTHLY TIME SERIES AFFECTED BY Morris Festivals

机译:A KALMAN FILTER APPROACH TO THE FORECASTING OF MONTHLY TIME SERIES AFFECTED BY Morris Festivals

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Abstract.Many economic time series are affected by the moving dates of festivals. In this paper a moving festival effect is defined and incorporated into a dynamic linear model which specifies how the parameters of several unobservable components of a time series evolve stochastically in time. The merits of this approach in comparison to other approaches are discussed and demonstrated using empirical data of three selected time series.

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