“The Dismal State of Biofuels Policy” (Issues, Fall 2010, by C. Ford Runge and Robbin S. Johnson) is essentially history, because it is all about corn ethanol, which has now peaked near the 15-billion-gallon mandate established by Congress. Corn ethanol will not grow further, so the real issue is not past policy but future policy with respect to other biofuel feedstocks. The hope for the future is biofuels produced from cellulosic feedstocks such as corn stover, switchgrass, miscanthus, and woody crops. These feedstocks can be converted directly into biofuels via a thermochemical process leading to green diesel, biogasoline, or even jet fuel. Congress has mandated 16 billion gallons of cellulosic biofuels by 2022. The problem is the huge uncertainty facing potential investors in these facilities. The major areas of uncertainty are: ? Market conditions—what will be the future price of oil? ? Feedstock availability and cost ? Conversion technology and cost ? Environmental effects of a largescale industry, and ? Government policy
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