Rapid global climate change is threatening the species for their healthy survival. The increase in mean surface temperature is particularly evident in mountain areas where there has been increase in winter temperature, less snowfall and more rainfall. In this study, we have modeled the species distribution of Rhododendron arboreum Sm., which is an ecological and economically important forest tree species in entire Himalayan mountain range, using three future climate scenarios of three global climate models. We have used species location data of Uttarakhand state to model species distribution in the Himalayan region and adjoining areas, where species has been reported. New region (Philippines and Taiwan) where species has its potential habitat and thus, could be introduced has been proposed. Most areas where species is found are biodiversity hotspot areas. All future models suggest that the species would suffer from range contraction and population localization and ultimately extinction in low altitude ( 4000 m) where there is possibility to move upwards. The range expansion of sp ecies will be under check by environmental and anthropogenic factors. The populations in different region will exhibit variation in survival behaviour based on local environmental conditions. However, species being a tree would survive in scattered refugia habitat leading to range disjunction and will be able to spread to other areas through forest corridors when favourable environment appears. Key environment variables which will affect future distribution of R. arboreum are temperature and precipitation. Altitude and slope govern species distribution of mountain plants like R. arboreum. The species will struggle to survive (or get extinct) in low (1400-1700 m) and lower-middle (1800-2000 m) altitude zones. The factors responsible for R. arboreum forest destruction and conservation measures have been suggested. Management actions should be taken quickly to ensure a healthy species distribution in future environment.
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