Developed and developing world responsibilities for historical climate change and CO_2 mitigation

Wei T.; Yang S.; Moore J.C.Shi P.Cui X.Duan Q.Xu B.Dai Y.Yuan W.Wei X.Yang Z.Wen T.Teng F.Gao Y.Chou J.Yan X.Wei Z.Guo Y.Jiang Y.Gao X.Wang K.Zheng X.Ren F.Lv S.Yu Y.

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Developed and developing world responsibilities for historical climate change and CO_2 mitigation

机译：Developed and developing world responsibilities for historical climate change and CO_2 mitigation

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At the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference in Cancun, in November 2010, the Heads of State reached an agreement on the aim of limiting the global temperature rise to 2°C relative to preindustrial levels. They recognized that long-term future warming is primarily constrained by cumulative anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, that deep cuts in global emissions are required, and that action based on equity must be taken to meet this objective. However, negotiations on emission reduction among countries are increasingly fraught with difficulty, partly because of arguments about the responsibility for the ongoing temperature rise. Simulations with two earth-system models (NCAR/CESM and BNU-ESM) demonstrate that developed countries had contributed about 60-80, developing countries about 20-40, to the global temperature rise, upper ocean warming, and sea-ice reduction by 2005. Enacting pledges made at Cancun with continuation to 2100 leads to a reduction in global temperature rise relative to business as usual with a 1/3-2/3 (CESM 33-67, BNU-ESM 35-65) contribution from developed and developing countries, respectively. To prevent a temperature rise by 2°C or more in 2100, it is necessary to fill the gap with more ambitious mitigation efforts.

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《Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America》 |2012年第32期|12911-12915|共5页
作者
Wei T.; Yang S.; Moore J.C.Shi P.Cui X.Duan Q.Xu B.Dai Y.Yuan W.Wei X.Yang Z.Wen T.Teng F.Gao Y.Chou J.Yan X.Wei Z.Guo Y.Jiang Y.Gao X.Wang K.Zheng X.Ren F.Lv S.Yu Y.;
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作者单位

State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;

Energy, Environment, and Economy (3E) Research Institute, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;

Climate Change Division, Department of Science and Technology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, ChinaNational Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, ChinaCold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, ChinaInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China;

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收录信息美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
原文格式 PDF
正文语种英语
中图分类自然科学总论;
关键词
Cancun pledge; Climate ethics; Climate modeling; Coupled model intercomparison project phase 5; Geoengineering;

Developed and developing world responsibilities for historical climate change and CO_2 mitigation

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