Consequences of rapid ice sheet melting on the Sahelian population vulnerability

Defrance Dimitri; Ramstein Gilles; Charbit SylvieVrac MathieuMoise Famien AdjouaSultan BenjaminSwingedouw DidierDumas ChristopheGemenne FrancoisAlvarez-Solas JorgeVanderlinden Jean-Paul

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Consequences of rapid ice sheet melting on the Sahelian population vulnerability

机译：Consequences of rapid ice sheet melting on the Sahelian population vulnerability

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The acceleration of ice sheet melting has been observed over the last few decades. Recent observations and modeling studies have suggested that the ice sheet contribution to future sea level rise could have been underestimated in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. The ensuing freshwater discharge coming from ice sheets could have significant impacts on global climate, and especially on the vulnerable tropical areas. During the last glacial.deglacial period, megadrought episodes were observed in the Sahel region at the time of massive iceberg surges, leading to large freshwater discharges. In the future, such episodes have the potential to induce a drastic destabilization of the Sahelian agro-ecosystem. Using a climate modeling approach, we investigate this issue by superimposing on the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) baseline experiment a Greenland flash melting scenario corresponding to an additional sea level rise ranging from 0.5 m to 3 m. Our model response to freshwater discharge coming from Greenland melting reveals a significant decrease of the West African monsoon rainfall, leading to changes in agricultural practices. Combined with a strong population increase, described by different demography projections, important human migration flows could be potentially induced. We estimate that, without any adaptation measures, tens to hundreds million people could be forced to leave the Sahel by the end of this century. On top of this quantification, the sea level rise impact over coastal areas has to be superimposed, implying that the Sahel population could be strongly at threat in case of rapid Greenland melting.

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《Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.》 |2017年第25期|6533-6538|共6页
作者
Defrance Dimitri; Ramstein Gilles; Charbit SylvieVrac MathieuMoise Famien AdjouaSultan BenjaminSwingedouw DidierDumas ChristopheGemenne FrancoisAlvarez-Solas JorgeVanderlinden Jean-Paul;
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作者单位

Univ Complutense Madrid, PalMA Grp, E-28040 Madrid, Spain;

Univ Paris Saclay, Observ St Quentin En Yvelines, Cultures Environm Arctique Representat Climat, F-78280 Guyancourt, France;

Univ Paris Saclay, Univ St Quentin En Yvelines, Commissariat Energie Atom & Energies Alternat, Inst Pierre Simon Laplace,CNRS,Lab Sci Climat & E, F-91141 Gif Sur Yvette, FranceUniv Paris 06, CNRS, Inst Rech Dev,Inst Pierre Simon Laplace, Museum Natl Hist Nat,Lab Oceanog & Climat Expt &, F-75005 Paris, FranceUniv Bordeaux, CNRS, Environm & Paleoenvironm Ocean & Continentaux, F-33615 Pessac, France;

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收录信息美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
原文格式 PDF
正文语种英语
中图分类自然科学总论;
关键词
climate change; ice sheet melting; impact; vulnerability; Sahel;

Consequences of rapid ice sheet melting on the Sahelian population vulnerability

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