Reconstruction of a 1,910-y-long locust series reveals consistent associations with climate fluctuations in China

Tian H.; Stige L.C.; Cazelles B.Kausrud K.L.Svarverud R.Stenseth N.C.Zhang Z.

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Reconstruction of a 1,910-y-long locust series reveals consistent associations with climate fluctuations in China

机译：Reconstruction of a 1,910-y-long locust series reveals consistent associations with climate fluctuations in China

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It is becoming increasingly clear that global warming is taking place; however, its long-term effects on biological populations are largely unknown due to lack of long-term data. Here, we reconstructed a 1,910-y-long time series of outbreaks of Oriental migratory locusts (Locusta migratoria manilensis) in China, on the basis of information extracted from >8,000 historical documents. First by analyzing the most recent period with the best data quality using generalized additive models, we found statistically significant associations between the reconstructed locust abundance and indexes of precipitation and temperature at both annual (A.D. 1512-1911) and decadal (A.D. 1000-1900) scales: There were more locusts under dry and cold conditions and when locust abundance was high in the preceding year or decade. Second, by exploring locust-environment correlations using a 200-y moving window, we tested whether these associations also hold further back in time. The locust-precipitation correlation was found to hold at least as far back as to A.D. 500, supporting the robustness of this link as well as the quality of both reconstructions. The locust-temperature correlation was weaker and less consistent, which may reflect this link being indirect and thus more easily moderated by other factors. We anticipate that further analysis of this unique time series now available to the scientific community will continue to provide insights into biological consequences of climate change in the years to come.

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《Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America》 |2011年第35期|14521-14526|共6页
作者
Tian H.; Stige L.C.; Cazelles B.Kausrud K.L.Svarverud R.Stenseth N.C.Zhang Z.;
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作者单位

State Key Laboratory of Integrated Management on Pest Insects and Rodents, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;

Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biology, University of Oslo, Blindern, N-0316 Oslo, Norway;

Université Mixte de Recherche 7625, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Ecole Normale Supérieure, 75230 Paris Cedex 05, FranceDepartment of Culture Studies and Oriental Languages, University of Oslo, Blindern, N-0315 Oslo, Norway;

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收录信息美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
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正文语种英语
中图分类自然科学总论;
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Reconstruction of a 1,910-y-long locust series reveals consistent associations with climate fluctuations in China

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