Finding water scarcity amid abundance using human-natural system models

Jaeger William K.; Amos Adell; Bigelow Daniel P.Chang HeejunConklin David R.Haggerty RoyLangpap ChristianMoore KathleenMote Philip W.Nolin Anne W.Plantinga Andrew J.Schwartz Cynthia L.Tullos DesireeTurner David P.

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Finding water scarcity amid abundance using human-natural system models

机译：Finding water scarcity amid abundance using human-natural system models

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Water scarcity afflicts societies worldwide. Anticipating water shortages is vital because of water's indispensable role in social-ecological systems. But the challenge is daunting due to heterogeneity, feed-backs, and water's spatial-temporal sequencing throughout such systems. Regional system models with sufficient detail can help address this challenge. In our study, a detailed coupled human-natural system model of one such region identifies how climate change and socioeconomic growth will alter the availability and use of water in coming decades. Results demonstrate how water scarcity varies greatly across small distances and brief time periods, even in basins where water may be relatively abundant overall. Some of these results were unexpected and may appear counterintuitive to some observers. Key determinants of water scarcity are found to be the cost of transporting and storing water, society's institutions that circumscribe human choices, and the opportunity cost of water when alternative uses compete.

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《Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.》 |2017年第45期|11884-11889|共6页
作者
Jaeger William K.; Amos Adell; Bigelow Daniel P.Chang HeejunConklin David R.Haggerty RoyLangpap ChristianMoore KathleenMote Philip W.Nolin Anne W.Plantinga Andrew J.Schwartz Cynthia L.Tullos DesireeTurner David P.;
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作者单位

Oregon State Univ, Dept Appl Econ, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA;

USDA, Econ Res Serv, Washington, DC 20024 USA;

Portland State Univ, Dept Geog, Portland, OR 97201 USAOregon Freshwater Simulat, Portland, OR 97213 USAOregon State Univ, Coll Sci, Corvallis, OR 97331 USAOregon State Univ, Oregon Climate Change Res Inst, Corvallis, OR 97331 USAOregon State Univ, Coll Earth Ocean & Atmospher Sci, Corvallis, OR 97331 USAUniv Calif Santa Barbara, Bren Sch Environm Sci & Management, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USAOregon State Univ, Biol & Ecol Engn Dept, Corvallis, OR 97331 USAOregon State Univ, Forest Ecosyst & Soc, Corvallis, OR 97331 USAUniv Oregon, Sch Law, Eugene, OR 97403 USA;

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收录信息美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
原文格式 PDF
正文语种英语
中图分类自然科学总论;
关键词
water scarcity; climate change; coupled human-natural system; hydro-economic model; conveyance cost;

Finding water scarcity amid abundance using human-natural system models

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