El Nino and the shifting geography of cholera in Africa

Moore Sean M.; Azman Andrew S.; Zaitchik Benjamin F.Mintz Eric D.Brunkard JoanLegros DominiqueHill AlexandraMcKay HeatherLuquero Francisco J.Olson DavidLessler Justin

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El Nino and the shifting geography of cholera in Africa

机译：El Nino and the shifting geography of cholera in Africa

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The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and other climate patterns can have profound impacts on the occurrence of infectious diseases ranging from dengue to cholera. In Africa, El Nino conditions are associated with increased rainfall in East Africa and decreased rainfall in southern Africa, West Africa, and parts of the Sahel. Because of the key role of water supplies in cholera transmission, a relationship between El Nino events and cholera incidence is highly plausible, and previous research has shown a link between ENSO patterns and cholera in Bangladesh. However, there is little systematic evidence for this link in Africa. Using high-resolution mapping techniques, we find that the annual geographic distribution of cholera in Africa from 2000 to 2014 changes dramatically, with the burden shifting to continental East Africa-and away from Madagascar and portions of southern, Central, and West Africa-where almost 50,000 additional cases occur during El Nino years. Cholera incidence during El Nino years was higher in regions of East Africa with increased rainfall, but incidence was also higher in some areas with decreased rainfall, suggesting a complex relationship between rainfall and cholera incidence. Here, we show clear evidence for a shift in the distribution of cholera incidence throughout Africa in El Nino years, likely mediated by El Nino's impact on local climatic factors. Knowledge of this relationship between cholera and climate patterns coupled with ENSO forecasting could be used to notify countries in Africa when they are likely to see a major shift in their cholera risk.

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《Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.》 |2017年第17期|4436-4441|共6页
作者
Moore Sean M.; Azman Andrew S.; Zaitchik Benjamin F.Mintz Eric D.Brunkard JoanLegros DominiqueHill AlexandraMcKay HeatherLuquero Francisco J.Olson DavidLessler Justin;
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作者单位

World Hlth Org, Dept Pandem & Epidem Dis, CH-1211 Geneva, Switzerland;

Johns Hopkins Bloomberg Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Epidemiol, Baltimore, MD 21205 USA;

Epicentre, F-75012 Paris, FranceJohns Hopkins Bloomberg Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Int Hlth, Baltimore, MD 21205 USAJohns Hopkins Univ, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, Baltimore, MD 21218 USACtr Dis Control & Prevent, Div Foodborne Waterborne & Environm Dis, Atlanta, GA 30329 USA;

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收录信息美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
原文格式 PDF
正文语种英语
中图分类自然科学总论;
关键词
cholera; El Nino Southern Oscillation; disease mapping; climate and health; Bayesian mapping;

El Nino and the shifting geography of cholera in Africa

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