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首页> 外文期刊>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America >Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon intensified by mega-El Ni?o/southern oscillation and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation
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Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon intensified by mega-El Ni?o/southern oscillation and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

机译:Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon intensified by mega-El Ni?o/southern oscillation and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

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摘要

Prediction of monsoon changes in the coming decades is important for infrastructure planning and sustainable economic development. The decadal prediction involves both natural decadal variability and anthropogenic forcing. Hitherto, the causes of the decadal variability of Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon (NHSM) are largely unknown because the monsoons over Asia, West Africa, and North America have been studied primarily on a regional basis, which is unable to identify coherent decadal changes and the overriding controls on planetary scales. Here, we show that, during the recent global warming of about 0.4 °C since the late 1970s, a coherent decadal change of precipitation and circulation emerges in the entirety of the NHSM system. Surprisingly, the NHSM as well as the Hadley and Walker circulations have all shown substantial intensification, with a striking increase of NHSM rainfall by 9.5 per degree of global warming. This is unexpected from recent theoretical prediction and model projections of the 21st century. The intensification is primarily attributed to a mega-El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation (a leading mode of interannual- to-interdecadal variation of global sea surface temperature) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and further influenced by hemispherical asymmetric global warming. These factors driving the present changes of the NHSM system are instrumental for understanding and predicting future decadal changes and determining the proportions of climate change that are attributable to anthropogenic effects and long-term internal variability in the complex climate system.

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  • 作者单位

    Department of Meteorology, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI 96822, United States;

    Key Laboratory of Virtual Geographic Environment of Ministry of Education, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210046, China;

    Research Institute for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Kanagawa 236-0001, JapanSchool of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30308, United StatesInternational Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI 96822, United States;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 英语
  • 中图分类 自然科学总论;
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