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首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of E-Collaboration >How Likely is Simpson's Paradox in Path Models?
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How Likely is Simpson's Paradox in Path Models?

机译:路径模型中辛普森悖论的可能性有多大?

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摘要

Simpson's paradox is a phenomenon arising from multivariate statistical analyses that often leads to paradoxical conclusions in the field of e-collaboration as well as many other fields where multivariate methods are employed. This work derives a general inequality for the occurrence of Simpson's paradox in path models with or without latent variables. The inequality is then used to estimate the probability that Simpson's paradox would occur at random in path models with two predictors and one criterion variable. This probability is found to be approximately 12.8 percent, slightly higher than 1 occurrence per 8 path models. This estimate suggests that Simpson's paradox is likely to occur in empirical studies, in the field of e-collaboration and other fields, frequently enough to be a source of concern.
机译:辛普森悖论是一种由多元统计分析引起的现象,通常会在电子协作领域以及采用多元方法的许多其他领域中得出悖论性结论。这项工作得出了具有或不具有潜在变量的路径模型中辛普森悖论的发生的一般不等式。然后使用不等式估计具有两个预测变量和一个标准变量的路径模型中辛普森悖论随机发生的概率。发现该概率约为12.8%,略高于每8个路径模型1次出现的概率。这一估计表明,辛普森悖论很可能在电子协作和其他领域的经验研究中发生,经常引起人们的关注。

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