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首页> 外文期刊>Earth and Planetary Science Letters: A Letter Journal Devoted to the Development in Time of the Earth and Planetary System >Time variant analysis of geomagnetic signals describes the volcanic activity of Mt. Etna between early 2000 and late 2002
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Time variant analysis of geomagnetic signals describes the volcanic activity of Mt. Etna between early 2000 and late 2002

机译：地磁信号的时变分析描述了山的火山活动。 2000年初至2002年底之间的埃特纳火山

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摘要

Volcanomagnetic anomalies have been mostly observed during strong eruptions. Our aim is to improve the geomagnetic data analysis to evidence the anomalies occurring in a larger time span, especially in the phases preceding the eruptive events. We developed a time variant statistical approach and applied it to the 2000–2002 Etna geomagnetic temporal series. It is based on an algorithm that statistically predicts the geomagnetic field at the station on the volcanic edifice by that recorded at the remote one. In such a way a number of significant changes in the time series (called statistical innovations), marking the local magnetic field change, were detected. The distribution of such statistical innovations accurately describes the Etna volcanic evolution: we note a progressive increase of the innovation occurrence as the eruptive cycles were approaching and only few and weak innovations at times between the various eruptive cycles. The significance of this analysis is further confirmed by the close agreement among the mean square prediction error, strain release and the volcanic activity behavior. On the contrary, the geomagnetic field at a single station or its difference at two stations do not have any clear correlation with other measured physical quantities. The complex pattern of the prediction error was also investigated by a multifractal analysis. We found that the Holder regularity increases with the intensification of the volcanic activity, implying that innovations tend to be less sporadic and correlated during the major volcanic phases.
机译：在强喷发过程中，大多数观察到了火山磁异常。我们的目标是改善地磁数据分析，以证明在较大的时间跨度内发生异常，尤其是在爆发事件之前的阶段。我们开发了时变统计方法，并将其应用于2000–2002年的埃特纳火山地磁时间序列。它基于一种算法，该算法根据远程建筑物上记录的磁场来统计预测火山大厦上站点的地磁场。通过这种方式，可以检测到时间序列中的许多重大变化（称为统计创新），这些变化标志着局部磁场的变化。此类统计创新的分布准确地描述了埃特纳火山的演变：我们注意到，随着喷发周期的临近，创新发生的数量逐渐增加，并且在各个喷发周期之间有时只有很少且较弱的创新。均方预测误差，应变释放和火山活动行为之间的密切一致性进一步证实了这一分析的重要性。相反，单个站点的地磁场或两个站点的地磁场与其他测得的物理量没有明显的相关性。还通过多重分形分析研究了预测误差的复杂模式。我们发现，霍尔德规则性随着火山活动的加剧而增加，这意味着在主要火山阶段，创新活动的零散性和相关性往往较小。

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