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首页> 外文期刊>Ecological Modelling >Description and sensitivity analysis for the LESV model: Water quality variables and the balance of organisms in a fjordic region of restricted exchange
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Description and sensitivity analysis for the LESV model: Water quality variables and the balance of organisms in a fjordic region of restricted exchange

机译：LESV模型的描述和敏感性分析：限制交换的峡湾区域的水质变量和生物平衡

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摘要

In this paper we describe a new ecological model for Regions of Restricted Exchange (RRE), such as fjords, estuaries, rias and lagoons. The model is intended to simulate the impact of external nutrient input on microplankton (phytoplankton plus pelagic microheterotrophs) in RREs. We have implemented the model with the practical purpose of finding a safe limit to the capacities of RRE to assimilate fish-farm waste. Sea-cage farming of fish is increasing in fjords in northern and southern hemispheres, and its external nutrient input can lead to environmental problems such as eutrophication and deoxygenation. The model includes a physical system of three layers with exchanges driven by tidal movement, freshwater input, wind stirring. The biological part includes two microplankton compartments, each parameterizing a microbial loop and each containing chlorophyll. The first compartment represents diatoms and associated heterotrophs, and the second compartment represents flagellates and associated heterotrophs. As well as the balance of these organisms, the model simulates concentrations of nutrient N, P, and Si, dissolved oxygen, and water transparency. Chlorophyll and nutrient change are linked by yields (q). Losses of microplankton to grazing by mesozooplankton or benthos are simulated by a temperature-dependent grazing pressure acting on a mean loss (L-0). The model also includes the ability to simulate point source inputs of nutrients or organic matter and a generic tracer with first order decay. Sea-cage fish-farms exemplify such point sources. In order to explore model behaviour, we included inputs from a 1500 tonnes salmon farm multiplied by a factor (gamma). We carried out sensitivity analysis to identify the most influential model parameters and forcing variables in the case of the shallow Scottish fjord, Loch Cretan, in 1975 before the introduction of salmon farming. We tested the model fit to this pristine state (gamma = 0), using Major Axis Regression of simulated variables on observed variables. The model successfully follows the seasonal cycles of chlorophyll (summer over both microplanktons) and the limiting nutrients (P, N). The sensitivity analysis identified three sets of key parameters: (gamma) and other fish-farm coefficients, which control farm waste effects on an RRE; (L-0) parameters for each microplankton, which link these to the rest of the ecosystem and which have implications for future inclusion of shellfish farming in the model and, chlorophyll yields from nutrients (q), which are crucial for the predication of eutrophication and the ecological understanding of the model.
机译：在本文中，我们描述了峡湾，河口，雷亚斯和泻湖等限制交换区域（RRE）的新生态模型。该模型旨在模拟外部营养物输入对RRE中微浮游生物（浮游植物加浮游微异养菌）的影响。我们实施该模型的实际目的是找到RRE吸收鱼场废物的能力的安全极限。北半球和南半球的峡湾中的海鱼养殖正在增加，其外部养分输入会导致富营养化和脱氧等环境问题。该模型包括一个由三层组成的物理系统，由潮汐运动，淡水输入，风搅拌驱动交换。生物部分包括两个微浮游生物区室，每个区划一个微生物环，每个区包含叶绿素。第一隔室代表硅藻和相关的异养生物，第二隔室代表鞭毛和相关的异养生物。除了这些生物的平衡外，该模型还模拟了营养物N，P和Si的浓度，溶解氧和水的透明度。叶绿素和养分变化与产量相关（q）。中浮游生物或底栖生物的放牧性浮游动物损失是通过作用于平均损失（L-0）的随温度变化的放牧压力来模拟的。该模型还具有模拟营养物或有机物的点源输入以及具有一阶衰减的通用示踪剂的能力。海箱养鱼场就是这种点源的例证。为了探究模型行为，我们将1500吨鲑鱼养殖场的投入乘以系数（γ）。在进行鲑鱼养殖之前，我们于1975年进行了敏感性分析，以找出最有影响力的模型参数和强迫变量，例如苏格兰浅海湾峡湾克里坦岛。我们使用模拟变量对观察变量的主轴回归测试了适合该原始状态（伽玛= 0）的模型。该模型成功地遵循了叶绿素（两个浮游植物均处于夏季）和有限养分（P，N）的季节性循环。敏感性分析确定了三组关键参数：（γ）和其他鱼类-农场系数，这些系数可控制农场废物对RRE的影响; （L-0）每个微浮游生物的参数，这些参数将其与生态系统的其余部分联系起来，这对将来将贝类养殖纳入模型以及营养物的叶绿素产量（q）具有影响，这对于富营养化的预测至关重要以及对模型的生态理解。

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