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A multi-scale approach to modelling spatial and dynamic ecological patterns for reservoir's water quality management

机译：用于水库水质管理的空间和动态生态格局建模的多尺度方法

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摘要

With growing levels of urbanization and agriculture throughout the world, it is increasingly important that both research and management efforts take into account the effects of this widespread landscape alteration and its consequences for natural systems. Freshwater ecosystems, namely reservoirs, are particularly sensitive to land use changes. In this context, modelling can be very useful, for decision support, as an investigative tool to forecast the outcome of various scenarios, to guide current management in order to meet future targets and to develop integrated frameworks for management accordingly to the Water Framework Directive (WFD). The present paper examined the applicability of a holistic Stochastic-Dynamic Methodology (StDM), coupled with a Cellular Automata (CA) model, in capturing how expected changes at land use level will alter the ecological status of lentic ecosystems, namely at physicochemical and biological levels. The methodology was applied to Portuguese reservoirs located in the Douro's basin and illustrated with a series of stochastic-dynamic and spatial outputs taking into account expected scenarios regarding land use changes. Overall, the simulation results are encouraging since they seem to demonstrate the tool reliability in capturing the stochastic environmental dynamics of the selected metrics facing spatial explicit scenarios. The ultimate goal was to couple monitoring assessment and the described modelling techniques to ease management and decision making regarding the practical implementation of the WFD, both at the scale of the reservoir body and at the scale of the respective river watershed dynamics.
机译：随着世界范围内城市化和农业水平的不断提高，研究和管理工作都必须考虑到这种广泛的景观变化及其对自然系统的影响，这一点越来越重要。淡水生态系统，即水库，对土地利用变化特别敏感。在这种情况下，建模对于决策支持而言非常有用，它可以作为一种调查工具来预测各种情况的结果，指导当前的管理以实现未来的目标并根据《水框架指令》制定综合的管理框架（ WFD）。本文研究了整体随机动力学方法（StDM）与元胞自动机（CA）模型的适用性，以捕获土地利用水平上的预期变化将如何改变透镜体生态系统的生态状况，即在物理化学和生物水平。将该方法应用于位于杜罗盆地的葡萄牙水库，并结合考虑到土地利用变化的预期情况，通过一系列随机动态和空间输出加以说明。总体而言，仿真结果令人鼓舞，因为它们似乎证明了工具在捕获面向空间显式场景的所选指标的随机环境动态时的可靠性。最终目标是将监测评估与所描述的建模技术相结合，以简化关于WFD实际实施的管理和决策，无论是在储集层规模还是在各个河流流域动态范围。

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